Not for nuthin'…. But….. this morning I put up “Still the Same Act” — same Iranian wish list, same stall, new UN theater. By evening the soundtrack got louder: missiles toward Saudi oil country, oil settling higher, and Tehran’s foreign minister waving a seven-day clock at Washington. Here’s what actually moved.
Where things stood this morning
Tuesday’s U.S.–Iran contact at UNGA went through mediators (Qatar, per Iranian accounts). Iran’s president told the General Assembly Tehran will “never surrender.” Security chief Mohsen Rezaei slapped a four-to-five-day clock on Washington to meet Tehran’s conditions before Hormuz reopens. Oil jumped about 2% Wednesday on the speeches. Secretary Rubio said any deal takes “prolonged effort” and military options stay on the table. Same routine I flagged back in April in “The Act is Getting Old.”
What’s new today
1. Araghchi sells a seven-day Hormuz reopen pitch
Thursday evening, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told reporters Iran has given the Trump administration a proposal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart talks on ending the broader war within seven days. Separately, Reuters sources close to the New York talks say both sides are exploring a phased Hormuz-for-blockade deal — and that sequencing is the wall. A senior Iranian official put the odds of diplomacy resolving this as “extremely low,” adding, “Our fingers are on the trigger.” That’s not a breakthrough. That’s a clock with a gun under the table.
Sources: The Washington Post, Sep 24, 2026 · 6:49 PM ET; Iran International (Reuters), Sep 24, 2026
2. Houthis fire at Saudi Arabia — Brent settles at $106.60
This morning’s post covered Wednesday’s roughly 2% oil jump. Thursday is a fresh move. Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis said they launched missile and drone attacks on a “sensitive target” in Riyadh and on Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu. The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted six ballistic missiles aimed at Taif and the Yanbu area. There was no immediate Saudi confirmation of Riyadh hits or of damage. Markets heard it anyway: Brent settled up $3.52, or 3.4%, at $106.60; WTI settled at $94.61 (+2.7%). Both contracts had been up about 5% at the session highs before reports of Hormuz-reopen talks trimmed the spike.
Sources: Reuters, Sep 24, 2026; CNA (Reuters), Sep 24, 2026
3. Supreme Leader adviser waves the Indian Ocean card
On Thursday, Yahya Rahim Safavi — adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and a former IRGC commander — said in a Fars-released video that if the war heats up again, the front could expand from the Persian Gulf, Hormuz, and the Red Sea into the Indian Ocean “and perhaps beyond.” That’s the first time an adviser to the supreme leader has explicitly named that theater. Diego Garcia sits out there for a reason.
Sources: CNA / AFP, Sep 24, 2026; The Indian Express, Sep 24, 2026
4. Tehran hardliners are eating their own diplomats
While Pezeshkian and Araghchi waved the “open to talks” flag in New York, IRGC-linked Tasnim blasted Araghchi’s reported contact with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff as “childish and vile” and demanded an apology — arguing the approved plan was only to pass Iran’s seven conditions through mediators. On Thursday, hardline MP Ali Khezrian said lawmakers had registered a motion to impeach Araghchi and that he must answer in parliament after returning. Other MPs claim he was authorized. Either way, the fight isn’t about whether to talk — it’s about who gets to hold the leash.
Sources: Iran International (Reuters reporting), Sep 24, 2026; Iran International, Sep 24, 2026
MOAM’s take
Same act, louder soundtrack. Threaten the Indian Ocean, keep Hormuz as the bargaining chip, let proxies lob missiles at Saudi oil country, demand the blockade lifted first, and let the hardliners slap the diplomats if anyone sits too close to an American. A seven-day proposal with “fingers on the trigger” is not momentum. That’s leverage theater. Strength still wins — and the folks heating with oil in Marblehead don’t get a vote in Tehran.
What to watch
Whether Washington answers Araghchi’s seven-day pitch with anything more than a shrug; Rezaei’s four-to-five-day clock; whether Araghchi survives the impeachment talk; and whether Friday oil holds after Thursday’s Houthi scare.
MOAM Out.
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