MOAM's Economic Snapshot — Thursday, Sept. 24

Not for nuthin'…. But….. mid-morning Thursday and the tape’s a little soggy while the pocketbook stuff still has teeth.

Markets (~11:46 AM ET): S&P 500 at 7,671.14 (−0.45%), Dow 51,176.78 (−0.65%), Nasdaq 26,740.05 (−0.73%). Risk-off lean after the open — nothing catastrophic, but nobody’s ringing a ship’s bell for a rally either.

Rates & oil: The 10-year yield’s around 5.16% (up a few basis points on the Yahoo quote). WTI crude futures jumped to about $96.22 (+4.4% on the day) — that’s the kind of move that shows up at the pump with a lag. Gold eased to roughly $4,285. Bitcoin roughly flat near $84,400.

At the pump (AAA, as of Sept. 24): National regular average $4.4825 a gallon (up about 0.8¢ from Wednesday’s $4.4744). Massachusetts regular $4.3979 — a hair softer than Wednesday. Still plenty high by the standards most of us grew up with on the North Shore.

Mortgages: Freddie Mac’s latest weekly 30-year fixed is 6.95% (week of Sept. 17), up 0.19 points from the prior week. That’s real money on a monthly payment if you’re shopping or refinancing.

Inflation & jobs (latest official prints): August CPI headline about 3.35% year-over-year; core (ex food & energy) about 2.45% YoY. Unemployment held at 4.1% in August with payrolls up about +162,000. Real GDP growth for Q2 2026 came in at +1.5% SAAR (after +2.1% in Q1).

Fed: Target range still 3.75–4.00% as of today.

Sentiment: University of Michigan consumer sentiment last on FRED is July’s 55.2 (up from June’s 49.5). August isn’t posted on FRED yet — we’ll update when it is.

Today’s releases: Initial jobless claims 197k (vs ~201k expected); continuing claims 1.719M. New home sales for August came in at a 684k SAAR pace (vs ~615k expected) — a beat after a revised July. Current Account and EIA natural gas were on the calendar; we’re not quoting unverified numbers here.

Pocketbook read from Marblehead: gas still expensive, mortgage rates not doing buyers any favors, and crude’s bounce today is something to watch into the weekend. Markets can wobble; the grocery cart and the fill-up are what hit the checking account.

MOAM Out.