MOAM's Economic Snapshot — Friday, Sept. 25

Not for nuthin'…. But….. Friday mid-morning and the tape’s a little greener while the pocketbook still asks for overtime.

Markets (~11:40 AM ET): S&P 500 at 7,712.98 (+0.11%), Dow 51,512.08 (+0.32%), Nasdaq 26,968.76 (+0.11%). Modest bounce after yesterday’s soggy session — nothing wild, just a steadier tone into the weekend.

Rates & oil: The 10-year yield’s around 5.22% (up a few basis points on the Yahoo quote). WTI crude futures eased to about $94.04 (−0.6% on the day) — still elevated vs. the world most of us remember, but off yesterday’s spike. Gold firmed to roughly $4,317. Bitcoin slipped near $83,540 (−1%).

At the pump (AAA, as of Sept. 25): National regular average $4.4918 a gallon (up about 0.9¢ from Thursday’s $4.4825). Massachusetts regular $4.3990 — a hair firmer than Thursday. Still plenty high by North Shore standards.

Mortgages: Freddie Mac’s latest weekly 30-year fixed is 7.03% (week of Sept. 24), up 0.08 points from the prior week’s 6.95%. That’s another nudge higher on the monthly payment if you’re shopping or refinancing.

Inflation & jobs (latest official prints): August CPI headline about 3.35% year-over-year; core (ex food & energy) about 2.45% YoY. Unemployment held at 4.1% in August with payrolls up about +162,000. Real GDP growth for Q2 2026 came in at +1.5% SAAR (after +2.1% in Q1).

Fed: Target range still 3.75–4.00% as of today.

Sentiment: University of Michigan’s final September consumer sentiment printed 48.1 (prelim was 47.8; August final was 51.7). That’s the pocketbook talking — fuel, prices, and nerves about what’s next.

Today’s releases: August durable goods orders were flat at 0.0% month-over-month (vs about −0.4% expected); prior July revised to +0.9%. Core nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft jumped +1.6%. UMich final 48.1 as noted. Baker Hughes rig count is on the afternoon calendar; we’re not quoting it until it’s out.

Pocketbook read from Marblehead: gas nudged up again, mortgage rates kissed 7%, and consumer sentiment stayed soft even as stocks tried a little bounce. Markets can green up on a Friday — the fill-up and the house payment still hit the checking account first.

MOAM Out.