NANEPASHEMET - The Source of Truth and Solace in a Troubled World: Midterms

Showing posts with label Midterms. Show all posts

Friday, November 06, 2026

Midterm Hangover on Wall Street: The Blue Wave Moved the Tape

By Thursday, Wall Street had finally priced what voters already knew on Tuesday night: Democrats took the House and the Senate in a real Blue Wave. The S&P 500 sank about 4.4%. The Nasdaq fell roughly 5.5% and slid into correction territory. Roughly two trillion dollars came off the tech-heavy indexes. President Trump pointed fingers at Democrats — and, in another post, told voters they had themselves to blame.

A lot of the cable chatter pinned the selloff on “AI panic” — fears that a blue Congress (and a lot of state winners) might slow data-center buildouts and chip spending. Traders fretted about that narrative, sure. Secondary story. I don’t buy it as the main driver.

What moved the tape was politics. Markets hate uncertainty, and a Democratic sweep with Trump still in the White House is a whole new set of vetoes, investigations, and fights over spending, regulation, and war powers. Wednesday’s post-election bounce looked like relief trading. Thursday looked like the hangover — the street catching up to a map that turned blue.

Underneath all of it sits the kitchen-table story that actually decided a lot of races: affordability. September CPI ran 3.7%. Real wages have been down for months. Folks watching their grocery bill, their electric rate, and their commute didn’t need a briefing book to know the squeeze. Oil briefly plunged midweek on hopes the Iran war might ease after the midterms — then bounced when tanker attacks reminded everyone the Strait of Hormuz is still a mess. Relief at the pump would help. We’re not there yet.

Here on the North Shore, that hangover shows up in quieter places: the 401(k) statement, the power bill, the conversation at breakfast about whether Washington can deliver cheaper living or just more noise. Voters punished the status quo. Markets priced a blue Congress. Those are the same story told in two languages.

Who actually wins when politics meets the grid, the retirement account, and the weekly shop? That’s the question worth sitting with this weekend — not the latest Wall Street excuse about robots and data centers.

What are you seeing in your own nest egg and utility bill this week? Drop a note in the comments — I’d like to hear it.

MOAM Out.

Monday, September 28, 2026

Diesel Export Ban: Relief for the North Shore, or Just Moving the Bill Around?

Not for nuthin'…. But….. if

you heat with oil on the North Shore, you already know what's coming. The Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources put home heating oil at $6.15 a gallon the week of Sept. 21. That's a record, and it's up nearly 75% from $3.52 a year ago. Diesel at Massachusetts pumps averaged about $6.39 this morning, per AAA. Nationally it's $6.45, just off the all-time high of $6.53 set on Sept. 22.

So when President Trump says the White House is "thinking about it very seriously" (a ban, or tight limits, on U.S. diesel exports), I get the appeal. Keep our diesel here. Sounds like common sense. Sounds like strength.

What's Actually on the Table

Nobody knows yet, including, it seems, Washington. Politico reported a 90-day ban was being prepared. The White House denied that. Energy Secretary Chris Wright says he's looking at restrictions, not a ban, and has reportedly asked refiners about "voluntary" restraint. Nothing has been announced.

Even the President hedged on Sunday: "That can oftentimes lead to a little bit of an increase on gasoline for cars, so we're looking at it very seriously. We may do it."

The Catch: Refineries Don't Just Make Diesel

One barrel of crude gives you diesel, gasoline and jet fuel all at once. If refiners can't ship diesel overseas, their tanks fill up and they cut back on everything. Wood Mackenzie figures Gulf Coast diesel storage would max out in just over a month, forcing crude run cuts of more than 2 million barrels a day. Their estimate for the East Coast is gasoline up about 26 cents a gallon.

Wright said it himself: "The blunt tool of banning diesel exports definitely doesn't work." More than 30 business and energy groups, API and AFPM among them, have warned it means "less fuel production, tighter supplies, and rising costs."

Sure, Big Oil has a dog in this fight. But when the President's own Energy Secretary, the industry and independent analysts all say the same thing, it's worth listening.

Why New England Is Different

We don't refine fuel around here. According to Wood Mackenzie, the Northeast is the region that leans hardest on imported diesel; the East Coast brought in about 120,000 barrels a day last year. A U.S. export ban pushes world prices up, and Wood Mackenzie says that "would put upward pressure on the cost of diesel in the North-East." Translation: the Gulf Coast could get the cheap diesel while we get the bill.

The Essex County Trucker and the Oil-Heat Homeowner

Diesel in Massachusetts is up about $2.54 a gallon from a year ago ($3.84 to $6.39). For a trucker, that works out to roughly $254 more on every 100 gallons. For a homeowner, a 200-gallon oil delivery at $6.15 comes to about $1,230, compared with about $704 last year.

A short ban might knock diesel down for a few weeks, right around the Nov. 3 midterms. After that, gasoline could climb and heating oil, which is basically the same distillate, isn't clearly any cheaper here. That doesn't cut the bill. It just moves it around.

Strength or Theater?

To be fair, the pain is real and the pressure to do something is real. Looking at every option isn't crazy. But a 90-day clamp timed to an election, one that risks pricier gas by the holidays, looks more like theater than strength. Real strength is more supply getting to the Northeast, plus real help for folks who can't afford the fill.

In the meantime, call your oil dealer about budget or pre-buy plans, check whether you qualify for fuel assistance, and ask every candidate on your ballot what they'd actually do about the price of a gallon.