NANEPASHEMET - The Source of Truth and Solace in a Troubled World: Energy

Monday, September 28, 2026

Diesel Export Ban: Relief for the North Shore, or Just Moving the Bill Around?

Not for nuthin'…. But….. if

you heat with oil on the North Shore, you already know what's coming. The Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources put home heating oil at $6.15 a gallon the week of Sept. 21. That's a record, and it's up nearly 75% from $3.52 a year ago. Diesel at Massachusetts pumps averaged about $6.39 this morning, per AAA. Nationally it's $6.45, just off the all-time high of $6.53 set on Sept. 22.

So when President Trump says the White House is "thinking about it very seriously" (a ban, or tight limits, on U.S. diesel exports), I get the appeal. Keep our diesel here. Sounds like common sense. Sounds like strength.

What's Actually on the Table

Nobody knows yet, including, it seems, Washington. Politico reported a 90-day ban was being prepared. The White House denied that. Energy Secretary Chris Wright says he's looking at restrictions, not a ban, and has reportedly asked refiners about "voluntary" restraint. Nothing has been announced.

Even the President hedged on Sunday: "That can oftentimes lead to a little bit of an increase on gasoline for cars, so we're looking at it very seriously. We may do it."

The Catch: Refineries Don't Just Make Diesel

One barrel of crude gives you diesel, gasoline and jet fuel all at once. If refiners can't ship diesel overseas, their tanks fill up and they cut back on everything. Wood Mackenzie figures Gulf Coast diesel storage would max out in just over a month, forcing crude run cuts of more than 2 million barrels a day. Their estimate for the East Coast is gasoline up about 26 cents a gallon.

Wright said it himself: "The blunt tool of banning diesel exports definitely doesn't work." More than 30 business and energy groups, API and AFPM among them, have warned it means "less fuel production, tighter supplies, and rising costs."

Sure, Big Oil has a dog in this fight. But when the President's own Energy Secretary, the industry and independent analysts all say the same thing, it's worth listening.

Why New England Is Different

We don't refine fuel around here. According to Wood Mackenzie, the Northeast is the region that leans hardest on imported diesel; the East Coast brought in about 120,000 barrels a day last year. A U.S. export ban pushes world prices up, and Wood Mackenzie says that "would put upward pressure on the cost of diesel in the North-East." Translation: the Gulf Coast could get the cheap diesel while we get the bill.

The Essex County Trucker and the Oil-Heat Homeowner

Diesel in Massachusetts is up about $2.54 a gallon from a year ago ($3.84 to $6.39). For a trucker, that works out to roughly $254 more on every 100 gallons. For a homeowner, a 200-gallon oil delivery at $6.15 comes to about $1,230, compared with about $704 last year.

A short ban might knock diesel down for a few weeks, right around the Nov. 3 midterms. After that, gasoline could climb and heating oil, which is basically the same distillate, isn't clearly any cheaper here. That doesn't cut the bill. It just moves it around.

Strength or Theater?

To be fair, the pain is real and the pressure to do something is real. Looking at every option isn't crazy. But a 90-day clamp timed to an election, one that risks pricier gas by the holidays, looks more like theater than strength. Real strength is more supply getting to the Northeast, plus real help for folks who can't afford the fill.

In the meantime, call your oil dealer about budget or pre-buy plans, check whether you qualify for fuel assistance, and ask every candidate on your ballot what they'd actually do about the price of a gallon.

MOAM Out.